PVC rises sharply under the adjustment of the layo

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PVC rises sharply under the industrial adjustment layout

Preface: traditional PVC analysis articles mostly discuss the rise and fall of commodity prices from the perspective of industrial supply and demand and cost factors, but due to the chain transmission of commodity cost transfer and the linkage between different commodities, it is sometimes difficult to achieve the expected effect through the price cost analysis of some products in the industrial chain. This paper attempts to jump out of commodity prices, analyze the impact of industrial structure adjustment and layout on PVC industry from the perspective of national macro policies, and explore the future price trend of PVC

optimize the industrial structure and achieve energy conservation and emission reduction - at this stage, China's macro-control theme

since the reform and opening up, China's economy has developed rapidly, but there are also problems such as unreasonable industrial layout, high energy consumption, high pollution and so on. Optimizing industrial layout, reducing unit energy consumption and reducing environmental pollution have become one of the important national policies written into the government's work report. The 11th five year plan also clearly proposes the goal of reducing energy consumption per unit of GDP by about 20%. The national development and Reform Commission of the State Council issued relevant policies to seize the opportunity to promote industrial restructuring and promote steady and rapid economic growth

since the second half of 2010, the domestic economy has been in good condition, and the "economy bottoming out twice" that the market was worried about has gradually weakened. The overall economic operation is stable, providing a good economic environment for optimizing the industrial structure. While maintaining the basic realization of the annual economic goals, the focus of macro-control has also shifted from "stable growth" to "structural adjustment"

in addition, at this stage, the "Eleventh Five Year Plan" proposes that the target time limit for reducing energy consumption per unit of GDP by about 20% is up. In the first four years, the national energy consumption per unit of GDP decreased by 15.61%. This year is the last year. At present, it is only four months from the completion of the target. However, in the first half of the year, the national energy consumption per unit of GDP increased by 0.09% year-on-year, and the energy consumption per unit of GDP in seven local areas increased. The situation is relatively grim. Therefore, in the next four months, increasing energy conservation and emission reduction, eliminating backward production capacity and upgrading the industrial structure are important objectives of the government's macro-control

irrational development of PVC industry

in recent years, China's chlor alkali industry has experienced a period of rapid development, especially since 2000, China's urbanization process has accelerated, a large number of infrastructure construction and the booming real estate market have created a good environment for the development of PVC industry

with the rapid expansion of production capacity, problems such as overcapacity, high energy consumption and pollution, unreasonable industrial structure and single product structure have gradually become prominent. It is mainly reflected in the following aspects:

first, there is obvious overcapacity and the contradiction between supply and demand is prominent. After 10 years of rapid development since 2000, PVC prices continued to run at a high level in 2004, and huge profits attracted a large number of investors. Reconstruction, expansion and new projects in the domestic PVC industry have been launched. In 2005, China's PVC production capacity increased by 46.38%. By the end of 2009, China's PVC production capacity reached 17.8 million tons, becoming the world's largest PVC producer. The production of a large number of PVC projects has led to a serious imbalance between supply and demand in China's PVC market. The operating rate of devices is insufficient. Most loads are only 50% (the capacity utilization rate in 2009 was only 56%), and the PVC demand growth rate in 2009 was 15.3%. However, it is estimated that the national total demand in 2010 was only 11.25 million tons, an increase of only 8.7%. The imbalance between supply and demand is serious, and the problem of overcapacity is prominent

second, the industrial structure is unbalanced. In recent years, the rise in international crude oil prices has made the cost of PVC produced by calcium carbide method. Maurizio REGGIANI, director of R & D Department of Lamborghini, told Automotive that most of the new PVC production capacity in China is produced by calcium carbide method, and the proportion of calcium carbide method continues to rise, becoming the dominant in the domestic market. Over the past five years, the capacity of calcium carbide PVC, which used to account for only about 60% of the total capacity of the country, has expanded to 80%. Taking 2010 as an example, among the newly put into operation projects, 10 adopted carbide production process, with a total new capacity of 2.94 million tons. However, there are only two kinds of PVC produced by ethylene method, with a production capacity of 700000 tons. The proportion of PVC produced by calcium carbide method in the market still shows a trend of further expansion, and the proportion of the two production processes is obviously unbalanced

geographically, most production enterprises are concentrated in central and western provinces such as Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Shanxi and Shaanxi, while the consumption market of materials is concentrated in developed eastern coastal areas such as Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Shanghai and Guangdong. The logistics cost has been increased, and the production and marketing layout needs to be further improved

in addition, the product structure is single, and most domestic PVC enterprises can only produce general-purpose products, which makes the proportion of low-end products too high, and the supply of high-end products is insufficient, so they rely on imports

third, high energy consumption and high pollution. PVC, especially calcium carbide PVC process, is a typical high energy consumption industry. For every ton of PVC produced, at least 1.5 tons of calcium carbide will be consumed, while the production of one ton of calcium carbide usually requires more than 3500 degrees of power resources. Mercury chloride is mainly used as catalyst for calcium carbide PVC. The consumption of mercuric chloride catalyst per ton of PVC monomer is 1.2 kg. Based on the output of 5.8 million tons of PVC in 2009, the industry uses about 6960 tons of mercury catalyst and about 566 tons of mercury, making it the largest mercury consumption industry in China and even the world. It is estimated that by 2012, the output of calcium carbide PVC in China will reach 10million tons, the consumption of mercury catalyst is expected to reach 12000 tons, and the consumption of Mercury will reach 1056 tons, accounting for about 60% of the total use of mercury in China. High energy consumption and high pollution have become the biggest problem of PVC industry

pvc industry will become the focus of policy regulation

based on the characteristics of PVC industry and the current characteristics of overcapacity, high energy consumption and high pollution in China's PVC industry, the state will carry out key policy regulation on this industry. It is mainly reflected in the control of upstream raw materials and the elimination of backward process devices

first, for the control of upstream calcium carbide production in PVC industry. In recent years, the carbide industry has gradually exposed the problems of low industrial concentration, scattered enterprise layout and low level of technical equipment, and has become the main object of national industrial structure adjustment. With the increasingly serious situation of energy conservation and emission reduction, the national control force also has an increasing trend. The State Council has issued three documents, namely, the notice of the State Council on accelerating the structural adjustment of industries with excess capacity, the plan for the adjustment and revitalization of the petrochemical industry, and the access conditions for the carbide industry, which require the carbide industry to eliminate backward production capacity. Control and reduce the supply of calcium carbide, with a view to eliminating some PVC calcium carbide devices

secondly, the PVC industry itself is also the focus of national direct regulation, especially in 2010, the regulation of PVC was unprecedented. On May 12, the national development and Reform Commission, the Electricity Regulatory Commission and the Energy Administration issued the "notice on cleaning up preferential electricity prices for high energy consuming enterprises" to try to eliminate those production devices with imperfect industrial chain and backward production technology through differential electricity prices. On June 4, the Ministry of industry and information technology announced the notice on printing and distributing the comprehensive prevention and control plan for mercury pollution in the calcium carbide PVC industry, which directly eliminated backward processes from the technical level. In the next four months, with the further intensification of the task of energy conservation and emission reduction, the PVC industry may be tested by more policies

PVC has increased significantly under the industrial adjustment layout.

the state has strengthened the regulation and control of the PVC industry. The purpose is obvious: first, to eliminate high energy consumption and high pollution enterprises; second, to optimize the industrial layout and improve the technological level of enterprises. In terms of implementation means, administrative means and market regulation should be used together. The introduction of regulatory policies will inevitably have a great impact on the PVC market, and PVC price fluctuations will also have characteristics different from the previous cycle

first of all, the industrial structure adjustment is carried out from the upstream calcium carbide products. The shutdown of some high energy consuming enterprises has reduced the market supply of calcium carbide, which directly led to the shutdown of some PVC devices due to insufficient supply of raw materials, reaching the goal of eliminating excess capacity. Considering the market factors, due to the reduction of calcium carbide supply and the breaking of the balance between supply and demand, the price of calcium carbide will inevitably rise according to the price law, thereby increasing the production cost of PVC enterprises

does the rising cost mean the rising price of PVC? The answer is No. the price of PVC not only has cost factors, but also downstream demand is an important positive part of the realization of PVC price. If the price transmission mechanism is sensitive, the price rise in the upstream can be transferred to end consumer goods through intermediate links. If so, the production cost of the enterprise can be transferred out through the terminal, and the operation of the enterprise will not be affected. Objectively speaking, the survival of the fittest of intermediate enterprises cannot be achieved, which is not the result of industrial adjustment policies. To this end, the State implements macro industrial layout adjustment to eliminate backward production capacity. On the one hand, PVC devices are directly eliminated through administrative means and technical standards; On the other hand, the most important thing is to cut off the transmission of intermediate link prices. Improve the cost of production enterprises, control the cost price, and stabilize the terminal price. 3. Design different fixture grids according to different samples and experimental methods. In this way, enterprises with high production costs and backward technology can be eliminated. In fact, at present, there is a certain barrier in the price transmission of PVC industry. Due to the weakness of the downstream automobile and real estate building materials industry, the terminal demand is limited, and the demand elasticity for PVC price is large. PVC enterprises can still meet the needs of the downstream market through the adjustment of operating rate under the condition that some devices are shut down. Many production enterprises with high costs or lack of industrial chain are in the shutdown stage

therefore, in order to truly realize the adjustment of industrial structure and ensure the elimination of backward production capacity, under the condition that the market means are not ideal, the government may focus on the downstream end consumption in the future to facilitate the better completion of man-machine running in in the process of operation, strengthen the regulation of the real estate market, curb the transmission of PVC costs to the downstream, control the excessive rise of the price of end consumer goods, and reduce the pressure of social inflation

reflected in the price of PVC, due to the increase of upstream costs, the price of PVC will stabilize near the cost line of medium-sized technology enterprises, and will rise slightly as a whole, but there will be no sharp rise. According to the current production cost of PVC industry, the ideal fluctuation range of PVC is (74007800)

note: the reprinted content is indicated with the source. The reprint is for the purpose of transmitting more information, and does not mean that those who agree with its views or confirm its content really replace the damaged tissue with healthy tissue

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